There are signs of new life in the UK labour market, but it is still a confusing picture. On one hand we have the green shoots. Hopes? Expectations? It must be Advent, as they keep telling us on Thought for the Day.

Great expectations are a fine thing, but recoveries from recession can be dished by the “double dip” phenomenon if anticipation exceeds reality. Over confidence may have to be choked back. In which case - lo! We could be back where we started.

But here is a survey by the Manpower recruitment company showing that in the finance and business services sectors, at least, hiring intentions are on the up, businesses are returning to profit and, as we have all noticed, bonuses are back in fashion - just in time for Christmas. Mark Cahill, Manpower MD described the glimmer of hope as having turned into “an encouraging spark.” A star in the East perhaps? (The metaphor is slaughtered!)

But on the other hand, we have a long way to go. The manufacturing and construction sectors are particularly weak. A year ago, people were seriously talking of a recession restricted to the financial services sector. Wrong! A recession in financial services hits everyone, particularly sectors that depend so much on borrowing.

Amidst all this, the news of 1,700 Corus steelworkers losing their jobs is a terrible blow to the Teesside communities and economy. Workers at the Redcar Corus production plant, Teesside Cast Products, will soon be looking for work.

Michael Leahy, General Secretary of the steel union Community (who has found time to send me a Christmas card) has spoken of the “moral and social obligations of Corus to the Steelworkers of Teesside, who have moved heaven and earth to rescue the plant and save their jobs.” One shares his shock - and the myrrh-like quality of his seasonal greeting.

This is so déjà vu. The steel industry was conspicuous among the smoke stack industries that declined in the 1980s and went down further in the 1990s with hundreds of thousands of workers (mainly men) being thrown out of work. The puzzling thing in this case is that the company, Tata Steel, that pulled the plug, expects “a sharp improvement” in its fortunes in the second half of the fiscal year. Couldn’t they wait then?

But the lessons of history have taught us to expect a long tail of job losses as economies recover from recession. We should steel ourselves (perhaps more than metaphorically) for further cuts and closures. And the communities where manufacturing is still a mainstay of employment, unfortunately are the likely sufferers.

What we learned before was that men, for these are mainly men’s jobs, suffer big hikes in unemployment and older men will find it very hard to get back into work after redundancy.

In the 1980s they were famously encouraged to register for incapacity benefit – relying perhaps on some restriction in functionality they had suffered by years of work in arduous jobs. And there they were forgotten!

Now we have a new regime. Incapacity benefit is no more, and fitness for work tests will face all who seek to register for the new employment and support allowance. Many will fail (or pass?) the test of unfitness for work and be directed to job seekers’ allowance and the job search process. After six months of frustrating search, the Flexible New Deal beckons.

It is a troubling prospect. One cannot but fear that the investments in learning, personal development and versatility that would have made a huge difference in the search for work, are unlikely to have been put in place.

My evidence for this? Past history mainly; but I understand that whilst the Dutch plants of Corus benefited from a positive innovation along the lines of the Finnish work ability model, Corus shied away from making such a scheme available to workers at its British plants.

Its reason? Supposedly, they were wary of the attitudes of the British unions and believed the workplace culture in the UK would be less tolerant of attempts to measure individuals’ working capacity.

One hopes all best efforts are made to find work for those displaced. Community, the union, has had much experience of following its unemployed members with support packages for retraining and the intermediate labour market. The workers and good people of Jobcentre Plus will share the perspective that, “this is not where we wanted to be.”

Coincidentally, we receive news that the Government’s hopes of a revitalised manufacturing sector are being held back by a shortage of qualified engineers. We are talking here of professional engineers – not just the metal bashing variety – but the anticipated shortage over the next seven years is to the order of 600,000.

Excuse me for thinking that if every young man or woman who entered employment in a sector such as iron and steel production had been encouraged to extend their personal skills and knowledge capacities way beyond their present jobs, we could be looking at a quite different scenario. Hard work and life long learning maybe, but the knowledge jobs will always be there.

It’s another hard lesson, but we are where we are. A significant investment in jobs, skills and personal work capacity is what we now need, which is pretty much the story wherever these massive cuts are experienced. Prevention would be a fine thing, but a chilly Advent is in prospect in Redcar.