I have had a couple of conversations recently with people who caution me against ‘demographic determinism’ and a too-accepting approach to concepts like ‘dependency ratios’.  Well, I am no demographer by training, but it seems eminently sensible to listen to those who are. Their visions are not all the same of course and nuanced interpretations emerge, but there is still a high degree of consensus.

But what are dependency ratios and why do they matter? In most rich countries the ratio of people of working age to those of retirement age will dramatically deteriorate over the next few decades. The balance between those working and those likely to be retired has clear implications for national economies. In Japan currently, there are about three workers to every pensioner – already one of the lowest dependency ratios anywhere. By 2050 this ratio is predicted to halve.

The effects of population ageing will spill over into economic and management strategies and affect us all. Quibble about terminology if you will, but surely we have got to start discussing the implications of these changes. Actually, what many objectors dislike is that word dependency. There I am with them, at least in spirit. Just because people are over 65, they should not be seen as dependent. That much is obvious.

Individuals take decisions that are right for them as individuals, but demographics are about societies. Neither should be ignored; certainly not demographic change. precisely because it is happening all the time. The recession may have some impact (child bearing age women made redundant sometimes decide to start families) but by and large, demographic change bumbles along come what may.

In Germany, where the labour force is due to start shrinking next year, a study by the Institute for the German Economy identified a shortage of about 70,000 engineers in 2007, a rise of 50 per cent over the previous year. It is small wonder that German companies have been among the leaders in recruiting and retraining 50 plus people as engineers. (We heard about this recently when Margret Suckale from Deutsche Bahn Mobility Logistics told TAEN’s Age Diversity in the Downturn conference about her organisation’s successes in recruiting older workers and retraining them.)

Hence my proposal in a recent publication for the organisation Unions21; surely it is time for the unions (as well as employers) to wise up and start working creatively around these issues. The German unions and employers associations have made a start. Collective agreements on demographic change have emerged in the Iron and Steel and Chemicals industries in the past few years. A huge agenda around skills training, flexibility and health and well-being beckons.

A union approach could be integrated in with an understanding of how age profiles in organisations represent risks and opportunities. Insights could be given on how unions and their members in other countries have been tackling these issues. Union learning representatives could have a role. Exchange of experience, is surely needed.

See the Unions 21paper The Generation Game: Does Age Matter? http://taen.org.uk/uploads/resources/Unions_21_piece1.pdf